◆ SCENARIO BUILDER · LIVE ALGORITHM

Ask anything. Get a probability.

Type a yes/no question. Tell us who's involved and what's happening right now. GAMBIT does the math and shows the odds across 6 months to 10 years.

Start from scratch ↓
◆ Quickstart · 30 seconds
1. AskType any yes/no question.
2. AnchorRough guess: how often per year?
3. ActorsList who decides the outcome.
4. ReadWatch the odds live on the right.
Don't overthink it. Rough guesses are fine — GAMBIT is designed to show how sensitive the answer is to your inputs. Move a slider, watch the probability shift.
◆ Or start with a template
Templates fill in every field so you can see how a real scenario looks. Then tweak whatever you want.
◆ Or replay a resolved event
See how GAMBIT would've handicapped events that already resolved. Great for building intuition on player + signal setup. Track record →
◆ Step 1 · Ask a yes/no question
Good: "Will the Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?" · Too vague: "Are the Lakers good?" — GAMBIT needs a yes-or-no.
◆ Step 2 · How often does this usually happen?
Rough guess is fine
10.0%
Think in a normal year, out of 100: Elections happen ~25%. Wars happen ~2%. Market crashes ~10%. Championships ~3–8% depending on the field. When in doubt, use 10% and adjust as you see the odds move.
◆ Step 3 · Who's involved?
The people or groups who decide
List 3–5 real actors. Then rate each one on power (how much they matter), cohesion (how organized they are), and pressure (do they push yes ↑ or no ↓?).
◆ Step 4 · What's happening right now?
Current news that moves the odds
Recent facts that tilt the answer. Set the multiplier: 1.30 = 30% more likely, 0.80 = 20% less likely, 1.00 = neutral.
Live equilibrium
Fill in your question…
◆ How to read this: Probabilities show the chance of your event occurring at least once in the given horizon. Bands are ±95% model confidence. Time compounding assumes independent trials.